• What will the WTC qualification equation be like? 


• How exactly will India have to play against Sri Lanka?

• The Indian team will start the Test from August 15. 

The final match of the World Test Championship 2025-27, or WTC Final, will be played at The Oval. But India’s path to the title has been tough. After suffering a humiliating 0-2 defeat at home to South Africa in the opening match of the tournament, the Shubman Gill-led Indian team has no room for error now. India still has seven Test matches to play in the ongoing tournament, which will decide their qualification. India’s tough journey will begin with a two-match Test series against Sri Lanka starting from August 15.

The World Test Championship standings are decided by percentage of points rather than total points. After nine matches, India are in fifth place with a percentage of just 48.15 with four wins, four losses and one draw. The defeat against South Africa has dealt a major blow to India, making every upcoming match a ‘do or die’ situation for the team.

The math of a clean victory in Sri Lanka

A win in the two Test matches on the Sri Lanka tour could revive India’s hopes. As per ICC rules, 12 points are awarded for each Test win. If India wins both the matches and earns 24 points, its PCT will increase to 57.58 per cent. Even if India wins only the first Test, its PCT will improve to 53.33 per cent.

This series is also important because India’s closest rival Sri Lanka is in sixth place with a PCT of 41.67 per cent. A win for India will not only boost its own points tally, but will also prevent Sri Lanka from advancing to the next round. However, even with a 2-0 clean sweep, India will not immediately reach the top three as Australia (87.50 per cent), South Africa (75.00 per cent) and New Zealand (72.22 per cent) continue to dominate. Still, this win will give the Indian team much-needed confidence for the tougher phase ahead.

The difficult path to New Zealand and Australia

After the two-match series in Sri Lanka, India will face a very tough situation in their remaining five Test matches. India will play a two-Test series against New Zealand in October. Beating New Zealand on their own soil is considered one of the toughest tasks in world cricket. Later this year, India will play a high-voltage five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia at home, with a total of 60 points at stake.

How is the equation? 

Talking about the qualification equation, India will have to win at least five of the remaining seven Test matches after the Sri Lanka tour. An ideal scenario would be for India to beat Sri Lanka 2-0, win the series in New Zealand 2-0 and then win the five-match home series against Australia 4-1. If India manages to do so, its total PCT will reach around 70, which will greatly strengthen India’s position in the finals race.

The challenge of off-field discipline

Beyond statistics and wins and losses, the Indian team will also have to consider its discipline on the field. The ICC has strict rules regarding slow overs, according to which one championship point is deducted for every over bowled in the allotted time. 

In this tight competition based on points percentage, even a single point loss can ruin India’s hopes of reaching the final. The two Tests in Galle and Colombo are not just part of a bilateral series, but a new beginning for Indian cricket. A mistake here could close the door on a final for former finalists India at The Oval, while a resounding 2-0 win could give a new direction to their finals journey.